strategic-intelligence-mcp/dist/forecasting/advancedForecastingEngine.d.ts

Strategic Intelligence MCP Server - connecting technical progress to business outcomes with systematic strategic planning

import { TechnicalMilestone } from '../intelligence/technicalMilestoneTracker.js';
import { BusinessGoal } from '../types/index.js';
import { ProgressCorrelation } from '../intelligence/progressCorrelationEngine.js';
export interface ScenarioForecast {
    id: string;
    name: string;
    description: string;
    timeframe: '3-months' | '6-months' | '12-months' | '18-months' | '24-months';
    confidence: number;
    assumptions: ForecastAssumption[];
    businessMetrics: {
        projectedRevenue: {
            conservative: number;
            realistic: number;
            optimistic: number;
        };
        customerAcquisition: {
            conservative: number;
            realistic: number;
            optimistic: number;
        };
        marketShare: {
            conservative: number;
            realistic: number;
            optimistic: number;
        };
    };
    technicalMetrics: {
        milestonesCompleted: {
            conservative: number;
            realistic: number;
            optimistic: number;
        };
        developmentVelocity: {
            conservative: number;
            realistic: number;
            optimistic: number;
        };
        qualityMetrics: {
            conservative: number;
            realistic: number;
            optimistic: number;
        };
    };
    riskFactors: ScenarioRisk[];
    opportunityFactors: ScenarioOpportunity[];
    uncertaintyRange: number;
    lastUpdated: string;
}
export interface ForecastAssumption {
    id: string;
    category: 'market' | 'technical' | 'competitive' | 'resource' | 'external';
    description: string;
    confidence: number;
    impactIfWrong: 'minimal' | 'moderate' | 'significant' | 'critical';
    evidence: string[];
    alternativeScenarios: string[];
}
export interface ScenarioRisk {
    id: string;
    description: string;
    probability: number;
    impact: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'critical';
    mitigationStrategies: string[];
    timeToMaterialize: string;
}
export interface ScenarioOpportunity {
    id: string;
    description: string;
    probability: number;
    impact: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'critical';
    captureStrategies: string[];
    timeToRealize: string;
}
export interface StrategyGap {
    id: string;
    category: 'market-understanding' | 'competitive-positioning' | 'technical-capability' | 'business-model' | 'execution' | 'resource-allocation';
    severity: 'minor' | 'moderate' | 'significant' | 'critical';
    description: string;
    evidenceOfGap: string[];
    competitorAdvantages: string[];
    recommendedActions: GapRemediation[];
    urgency: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'critical';
    estimatedImpact: {
        revenueAtRisk: number;
        opportunityCost: number;
        competitiveDisadvantage: string;
    };
}
export interface GapRemediation {
    action: string;
    timeframe: string;
    effort: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high';
    cost: number;
    expectedOutcome: string;
    successProbability: number;
}
export interface CompetitivePosition {
    id: string;
    competitorName: string;
    category: 'direct' | 'indirect' | 'emerging' | 'platform';
    strengthAreas: CompetitiveStrength[];
    weaknessAreas: CompetitiveWeakness[];
    overallThreatLevel: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'critical';
    marketPosition: 'leader' | 'challenger' | 'follower' | 'niche';
    differentiationStrategy: string;
    counterStrategies: string[];
}
export interface CompetitiveStrength {
    area: string;
    description: string;
    impact: 'minimal' | 'moderate' | 'significant' | 'critical';
    sustainability: 'temporary' | 'medium-term' | 'long-term' | 'permanent';
    ourResponse: string;
}
export interface CompetitiveWeakness {
    area: string;
    description: string;
    exploitability: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high';
    timeWindow: string;
    ourAdvantage: string;
}
export declare class AdvancedForecastingEngine {
    private static MAX_CONFIDENCE;
    private static SCENARIO_WEIGHTS;
    generateMultiScenarioForecast(milestones: TechnicalMilestone[], goals: BusinessGoal[], correlations: ProgressCorrelation[], timeframe: ScenarioForecast['timeframe'], focusArea?: 'revenue' | 'growth' | 'market-share' | 'technical' | 'all'): ScenarioForecast[];
    private generateBaseScenario;
    private generateConservativeScenario;
    private generateOptimisticScenario;
    private generateDisruptionScenario;
    identifyStrategyGaps(milestones: TechnicalMilestone[], goals: BusinessGoal[], correlations: ProgressCorrelation[], marketContext?: string[]): StrategyGap[];
    private identifyMarketUnderstandingGaps;
    private identifyTechnicalCapabilityGaps;
    private identifyCompetitivePositioningGaps;
    private identifyBusinessModelGaps;
    private identifyExecutionGaps;
    private parseTimeframeToMonths;
}
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