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Microsoft should have Windows 10 on more than 410 million personal computers within 18 months of the new OS's release,
an analysis of user share data and upgrade tempos shows.
More than three-fourths of all PCs running Windows 8 or 8.1 will migrate to Windows 10 in the first 18 months
of the latter's lifecycle. A smaller percentage of Windows 7 PCs will add hundreds of millions more to the tally,
even though most business and government devices will not shift to Windows 10 until 2017 or later.
The calculations are based on the performance of Windows 8.1, the free upgrade Microsoft shipped in October 2013
as the follow-up to the original Windows 8 of the year before.
Assuming 1.52 billion Windows PCs worldwide, that translates into 198 million machines
(17.1% share for Windows 8/8.1 at the end of June x 76% = 13% x 1.52 billion).
....
That 14 percent would represent 212 million PCs.
Together, the Windows 8/8.1 and Windows 7 upgrades would total 410 million within a year and a half,
and at the end of the period account for 27 percent of all Windows PCs.
The projection may be on the conservative side: Although the 27% would be a migration speed
record for Microsoft, beating the 25 percent uptake of Windows 7 in its first 18 months.
But even sticking to the 410 million gives Microsoft a good jump on its 1 billion devices goal,
assuming that the length of Redmond's forecast is three years, not two.