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kestrel.markets

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A typed, token-efficient language + runtime for agentic trading: agents author bounded plans, the runtime fires them at the tick. CLI + typed library + MCP server.

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/** * # grade/receipts — the pure PROJECTOR that lifts agent receipts off a Session bus (kestrel-a57.5) * * `projectReceipts(bus)` is the deterministic fold from one canonical Session {@link ../bus Bus} into the * {@link SessionReceipts} curation record — the immutable set of every agent PROPOSAL, DECLINE, and * STAND-DOWN taken in the session. It mirrors the {@link ../blotter Blotter} projector's discipline * (ADR-0011): **a pure function of the bus** — same bus in ⇒ byte-identical receipts out, no engine-state * scrape, no wall clock, no RNG. * * **Curation honesty (the a57.5 doctrine).** The projector records EVERY decision, not only the armed ones. * A survivor-only record cannot grade curation, so declines and stand-downs are MANDATORY rows — the record * carries the plans the agent declined and stood down, alongside the plans it armed. * * **How a decision rides the bus (today, and the seam).** An agent decision is carried on the existing * **CONTROL** stream — the L2→L1 author-intent channel, whose `type` vocabulary is open (bus/types) — with * `type ∈ {propose, decline, stand_down}`, `target` naming the plan, and the structured * {@link DecisionDescriptor} (thesis axes, counterfactual, measurement versions, plan source) carried as * canonical JSON in the CONTROL `note`. This keeps the bus schema UNCHANGED. The note-as-JSON transport is a * documented SEAM: when a typed proposal envelope lands (a57.14) the descriptor moves onto a typed payload, * but the projector's contract — receipts are a pure projection of the bus — is unchanged. The **percept** * the agent acted on is projected today as the canonical bus PREFIX (`seq < proposed_seq`); the percept-v5 * {@link ../frame Frame} is the future enrichment (see {@link ./receipt.ts} `PerceptProjection`). * * **Fail closed (AGENTS.md).** A CONTROL decision whose `note` is missing/malformed is not silently dropped: * it is recorded in {@link SessionReceipts.skipped} with a logged reason (a corruption cannot masquerade as a * well-formed decision, and it cannot fabricate a thesis). A well-formed decision whose PLAN text fails to * parse degrades to a STAND-DOWN receipt (plan = null) whose rationale records the escape — the curation row * is kept ("parse escape → STAND_DOWN"). */ import { serializeBus } from "../bus/index.js"; import { canonicalizeJson } from "../canonical/json.js"; import { ARMING_DECISIONS, COUNTERFACTUAL_KINDS, DECISION_KINDS, PlanParseError, ReceiptValidationError, createReceipt, sha256, } from "./receipt.js"; // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── // The bus transport (CONTROL note-JSON) — a documented seam // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── /** The CONTROL `type`s the projector reads as agent decisions. Other CONTROL actions (arm/disarm/author/ * supersede/allocate) are ignored — they are not decisions with a thesis. */ export const DECISION_CONTROL_TYPES = new Set(["propose", "decline", "stand_down"]); /** The projector that produces the percept-hash bytes today (the bus prefix). Pins meaning across * revisions; becomes `{ kind: "frame", ... }` when the percept-v5 Frame lands (a documented seam). */ const BUS_PREFIX_PROJECTION = { kind: "bus-prefix", renderer_version: "bus-prefix-v0" }; /** Encode a decision descriptor as the canonical-JSON string a CONTROL `note` carries. The inverse of the * projector's decode; exported so a harness (and tests) write the exact bytes the projector reads. */ export function encodeDecision(d) { return JSON.stringify(d); } // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── // The PRODUCER (kestrel-a57.18) — the driver-side half that WRITES what the projector reads // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── /** * The thesis a DRIVER-authored decision carries today: **UNSTATED**. * * The receipt schema demands a thesis on every row, but the Session action surface * ({@link import("../session/agent.ts").Action}) carries no structured thesis — an agent states its * intent as free-text `journal`/`note` prose, never as the gradable axes. The producer therefore states * NOTHING on the agent's behalf: every axis is `null` (no claim), `conviction` is `0` (the floor — the * receipt asserts no confidence the agent did not express), and the day-type distribution is the single * explicit `unstated` mass. This is the honest encoding of "no thesis was stated", never a plausible * thesis invented by the runtime (a fabricated claim would be exactly the "silently false" the fail-closed * doctrine forbids, and it would poison the very clustering the axes exist to enable). * * **Seam (a57.14).** When the typed proposal envelope lands, the agent states its OWN axes and they ride * here instead. A grader can tell the two apart mechanically: `day_type_probabilities.unstated === 1`. */ export const UNSTATED_THESIS = { when: { session_phase: null, regime: null, event: null, trend_state: null, volatility_state: null }, where: { product: null, direction: null, strike: null, moneyness: null, book_state: null }, how: { entry_method: null, size_contracts: null, reload: null, invalidation: null, exit: null }, conviction: 0, day_type_probabilities: { unstated: 1 }, }; /** The commission model this engine applies to a simulated fill: **none**. A truthful, checkable pin — * the sim charges no commission, so a grader must not compare its EV against a commissioned run. */ export const DRIVER_COMMISSION_MODEL = "none-v0"; /** The bounded-risk envelope version the engine enforces (`budget NR` + the never-naked/intrinsic-floor * admission Gate). Bump when the envelope's arithmetic changes — EVs across versions refuse comparison. */ export const DRIVER_RISK_ENVELOPE = "budget-r-v1"; /** The grader version a receipt minted by this engine is measured by (the headline grader). */ export const DRIVER_GRADER = "grade-v1"; /** * Pin the measurement versions for a decision minted by the Session driver. Pure: a function of the run's * judge (`fill_model`) and the bus's fidelity only — no clock, no RNG. Everything a version could move a * number through is pinned, so a grade can refuse to compare EVs across versions (ADR-0006). */ export function driverMeasurementVersions(judge) { return { fill_model: judge.fillModel, commission_model: DRIVER_COMMISSION_MODEL, bus_fidelity: judge.fidelity, risk_envelope: DRIVER_RISK_ENVELOPE, grader: DRIVER_GRADER, }; } /** * Build the CONTROL event FIELDS that carry one agent decision receipt onto the Session bus — the * producer half of the a57.5 seam (kestrel-a57.18). The driver spreads the result into its own `emit` * (which stamps `ts`/`seq`), so the transport stays the unchanged CONTROL stream and the projector's * contract — receipts are a pure projection of the bus — is untouched. * * Pure and deterministic: same input ⇒ byte-identical `note`. It performs NO validation of its own — the * projector is the single validator (one definition, never a second one), and it fails closed on anything * this writes that does not cohere. */ export function decisionControlFields(d) { const descriptor = { decision_kind: d.decision_kind, plan_text: d.plan_text, counterfactual: d.counterfactual ?? "null", measurement_versions: d.measurement_versions, thesis: d.thesis ?? UNSTATED_THESIS, ...(d.rationale !== undefined ? { rationale: d.rationale } : {}), }; return { type: d.control, ...(d.target !== undefined ? { target: d.target } : {}), note: encodeDecision(descriptor), }; } // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── // Decode helpers (fail-closed) // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── /** Parse a CONTROL `note` into a {@link DecisionDescriptor}, or throw with a precise reason. Total. */ function decodeDescriptor(note) { if (note === undefined || note.length === 0) throw new ReceiptValidationError("CONTROL decision carries no note payload"); let raw; try { raw = JSON.parse(note); } catch (err) { throw new ReceiptValidationError(`CONTROL decision note is not valid JSON: ${err.message}`); } if (typeof raw !== "object" || raw === null || Array.isArray(raw)) { throw new ReceiptValidationError("CONTROL decision note must be a JSON object"); } const d = raw; if (typeof d.decision_kind !== "string" || !DECISION_KINDS.has(d.decision_kind)) { throw new ReceiptValidationError("decision descriptor decision_kind is missing or unknown"); } if (typeof d.counterfactual !== "string" || !COUNTERFACTUAL_KINDS.has(d.counterfactual)) { throw new ReceiptValidationError("decision descriptor counterfactual is missing or unknown"); } if (d.plan_text !== null && typeof d.plan_text !== "string") { throw new ReceiptValidationError("decision descriptor plan_text must be a string or null"); } if (typeof d.measurement_versions !== "object" || d.measurement_versions === null) { throw new ReceiptValidationError("decision descriptor measurement_versions is missing"); } if (typeof d.thesis !== "object" || d.thesis === null) { throw new ReceiptValidationError("decision descriptor thesis is missing"); } return d; } /** The decision kinds the given CONTROL `type` admits (fail-closed pairing between coarse marker and fine * kind). Prevents a `propose` note that secretly declares a `decline`, etc. */ function admissibleKinds(controlType) { switch (controlType) { case "propose": return ARMING_DECISIONS; case "decline": return new Set(["decline"]); case "stand_down": return new Set(["stand_down"]); default: return new Set(); } } // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── // projectReceipts // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── /** The opening META of the bus, or a loud refusal (fail-closed): a well-formed bus opens with exactly one * META. Unlike the Blotter projector this does NOT require a GRADED bus — a receipt is authored on the input * tape, before any fill model grades it. */ function requireMeta(bus) { const meta = bus.find((e) => e.stream === "META"); if (meta === undefined) { throw new ReceiptValidationError("no META header in bus (a well-formed bus opens with exactly one META)"); } return meta; } /** * Project one Session bus into its immutable {@link SessionReceipts} curation record. Pure and deterministic * (ADR-0011): no wall clock, no RNG, no engine-state scrape — the SAME bus yields byte-identical receipts * (proven by re-projecting and byte-comparing {@link serializeReceipts}). Records every armed/declined/ * stood-down decision (curation honesty); records malformed decisions in `skipped` (fail-closed). */ export function projectReceipts(bus) { const meta = requireMeta(bus); const session = { date: meta.session_date, mode: meta.mode }; const receipts = []; const skipped = []; /** Plan names an arming RECEIPT claims (the `target` of a decision that projected to an arming kind). */ const armedByReceipt = new Set(); for (const e of bus) { if (e.stream !== "CONTROL") continue; const ce = e; if (!DECISION_CONTROL_TYPES.has(ce.type)) continue; // not a decision (arm/disarm/author/…) try { const d = decodeDescriptor(ce.note); if (!admissibleKinds(ce.type).has(d.decision_kind)) { throw new ReceiptValidationError(`CONTROL type ${JSON.stringify(ce.type)} is incompatible with decision_kind ${JSON.stringify(d.decision_kind)}`); } // Percept — the canonical bus PREFIX the agent could have perceived (seq strictly before this // decision). This is the AVAILABLE representation today; the percept-v5 Frame is the seam. // The bus is append-only in monotonic `seq` order, so the prefix's last element is its watermark. const prefix = bus.filter((p) => p.seq < ce.seq); if (prefix.length === 0) { throw new ReceiptValidationError("decision precedes the session META (no percept prefix)"); } const lastPerceived = prefix[prefix.length - 1]; const prefixBytes = serializeBus(prefix); const percept = { sha256: sha256(prefixBytes), byte_count: Buffer.byteLength(prefixBytes, "utf8"), seq_watermark: lastPerceived.seq, projection: BUS_PREFIX_PROJECTION, }; // The claimed information cutoff can never exceed the watermark of the percept the receipt pins: // the percept is the bus prefix (seq < proposed_seq), whose latest information is lastPerceived.ts. // A cutoff beyond it is a look-ahead provenance claim the pinned percept cannot back — fail closed. if (d.information_cutoff !== undefined && d.information_cutoff > lastPerceived.ts) { throw new ReceiptValidationError(`information_cutoff ${d.information_cutoff} exceeds the pinned percept's watermark ts ${lastPerceived.ts} ` + `(look-ahead: the decision claims information more recent than the percept it hashed)`); } const information_cutoff = d.information_cutoff ?? lastPerceived.ts; // "parse escape → STAND_DOWN": a well-formed decision whose plan text does not parse degrades to a // stand-down receipt (plan = null) — the curation row is KEPT, with the escape recorded in rationale. let receipt; try { receipt = createReceipt({ session_date: meta.session_date, proposed_at: ce.ts, proposed_seq: ce.seq, information_cutoff, decision_kind: d.decision_kind, percept, plan_text: d.plan_text, counterfactual: d.counterfactual, measurement_versions: d.measurement_versions, thesis: d.thesis, rationale: d.rationale ?? null, }); } catch (err) { if (err instanceof PlanParseError && d.plan_text !== null) { receipt = createReceipt({ session_date: meta.session_date, proposed_at: ce.ts, proposed_seq: ce.seq, information_cutoff, decision_kind: "stand_down", percept, plan_text: null, counterfactual: d.counterfactual, measurement_versions: d.measurement_versions, thesis: d.thesis, rationale: `parse escape → stand-down: ${err.message}`, }); } else { throw err; } } receipts.push(receipt); // Bind this arming receipt to the plan NAME it claims to have armed, for reconciliation against the // bus's real arm record. A decision that degraded to stand-down (parse escape) is NOT an arm. if (ARMING_DECISIONS.has(receipt.decision_kind) && ce.target !== undefined) { armedByReceipt.add(ce.target); } } catch (err) { const reason = err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err); skipped.push({ seq: ce.seq, reason }); } } receipts.sort((a, b) => a.proposed_seq - b.proposed_seq); skipped.sort((a, b) => a.seq - b.seq); const curation = assessCuration(bus, receipts, armedByReceipt); return { session, receipts, skipped, curation }; } // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── // Curation-honesty verdict — survivor-only detection + arm reconciliation // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── /** The plan names the bus's real ARM record armed: every `PLAN` armed transition and every `CONTROL arm` * with a `target`. This is the execution-side arm set the receipt channel must reconcile with — the same * canonical arm path that drives the {@link ../blotter Blotter}. Sorted, deduplicated. */ function armedOnBus(bus) { const armed = new Set(); for (const e of bus) { if (e.stream === "PLAN" && e.type === "lifecycle" && e.state === "armed") armed.add(e.plan); else if (e.stream === "CONTROL" && e.type === "arm") { const t = e.target; if (t !== undefined) armed.add(t); } } return [...armed].sort(); } /** * Compute the {@link CurationVerdict} for a projected record (findings: survivor-only records and the * receipt/arm decoupling). Fail-closed and structural, NOT an honor system: * • **survivor-only** — arming receipts with zero declines/stand-downs cannot grade curation; an empty * record has nothing to grade. Either makes the record non-gradable. * • **arm reconciliation** — when the bus carries a real arm record, the arming receipts and the bus's * arm set must AGREE: an arm with no receipt hides curation; a receipt claiming an arm the bus never * armed is a self-reported fiction. Either divergence makes the record non-gradable. * Pure and deterministic — a function of the bus and the receipts only. */ function assessCuration(bus, receipts, armedByReceipt) { const armed = receipts.filter((r) => ARMING_DECISIONS.has(r.decision_kind)).length; const declined_or_stood_down = receipts.length - armed; const busArms = armedOnBus(bus); const arm_record_present = busArms.length > 0; const busArmSet = new Set(busArms); const unreceipted_arms = busArms.filter((name) => !armedByReceipt.has(name)); const phantom_arms = arm_record_present ? [...armedByReceipt].filter((name) => !busArmSet.has(name)).sort() : []; const reasons = []; if (receipts.length === 0) { reasons.push("no decisions recorded — nothing to grade (curation requires declines/stand-downs)"); } else if (declined_or_stood_down === 0) { reasons.push(`survivor-only: ${armed} arming decision(s) with no declines or stand-downs recorded — ` + `a survivor-only record cannot distinguish a good selector from a lucky one (declines/stand-downs are MANDATORY)`); } if (unreceipted_arms.length > 0) { reasons.push(`arm record diverges: ${unreceipted_arms.length} plan(s) armed on the bus have no arming receipt ` + `[${unreceipted_arms.join(", ")}] — the engine armed what the receipt record does not own`); } if (phantom_arms.length > 0) { reasons.push(`arm record diverges: ${phantom_arms.length} arming receipt(s) name a plan the bus never armed ` + `[${phantom_arms.join(", ")}] — a self-reported arm the execution log does not back`); } return { gradable: reasons.length === 0, reasons, armed, declined_or_stood_down, arm_record_present, unreceipted_arms, phantom_arms, }; } // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── // Canonical serialization // ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── /** Serialize a {@link SessionReceipts} record to its canonical bytes: deterministic machine-JSON * (lexicographically ordered keys, compact, one trailing newline). Pure and total — the same record always * produces byte-identical text, the substrate a determinism check byte-compares. The key order is the one * {@link canonicalizeJson canonical byte order} (canonical/json); the single trailing newline is canon. */ export function serializeReceipts(record) { return canonicalizeJson(record) + "\n"; } /** The declined and stood-down receipts (the curation the agent left on the table) — the non-arming * decisions a survivor-only record would drop. A convenience over {@link SessionReceipts.receipts}. */ export function declinedAndStoodDown(record) { return record.receipts.filter((r) => !ARMING_DECISIONS.has(r.decision_kind)); }