@neural-trader/sports-betting/README.md

Sports betting for Neural Trader - arbitrage detection, Kelly sizing, syndicate management

# @neural-trader/sports-betting

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Advanced sports betting strategies with Kelly Criterion position sizing, arbitrage detection, and risk management for Neural Trader. Optimize bet sizing and find profitable opportunities across bookmakers.

## Features

- **Kelly Criterion**: Mathematically optimal bet sizing for long-term growth
- **Arbitrage Detection**: Find risk-free betting opportunities across bookmakers
- **Syndicate Management**: Coordinate group betting pools with profit distribution
- **Multi-Bookmaker Analysis**: Compare odds across 50+ betting providers
- **Risk Management**: Position limits, bankroll protection, and drawdown controls
- **Real-Time Odds**: Live odds updates and line movement tracking
- **Market Analysis**: Identify value bets and market inefficiencies
- **Rust Performance**: Sub-millisecond arbitrage detection

## Installation

```bash
npm install @neural-trader/sports-betting @neural-trader/core @neural-trader/risk
```

## Quick Start

### Kelly Criterion Bet Sizing

```typescript
import { RiskManager } from '@neural-trader/sports-betting';

const riskManager = new RiskManager({
  confidenceLevel: 0.95,
  lookbackPeriods: 100,
  method: 'historical'
});

// Calculate Kelly Criterion for a bet
const kelly = riskManager.calculateKelly(
  0.55,  // 55% win probability (your model's prediction)
  2.0,   // 2.0x payout on win (decimal odds)
  1.0    // 1.0x loss on lose (stake)
);

console.log(`Full Kelly: ${(kelly.kellyFraction * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(`Half Kelly (recommended): ${(kelly.halfKelly * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(`Quarter Kelly (conservative): ${(kelly.quarterKelly * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);

// For a $10,000 bankroll
const bankroll = 10000;
const betSize = bankroll * kelly.halfKelly;
console.log(`Recommended bet: $${betSize.toFixed(2)}`);
```

### Arbitrage Detection

```typescript
import { ArbitrageDetector } from '@neural-trader/sports-betting';

const detector = new ArbitrageDetector({
  minProfitMargin: 0.01,  // 1% minimum profit
  maxStake: 5000,
  bookmakers: ['bet365', 'draftkings', 'fanduel', 'betmgm']
});

// Find arbitrage opportunities for an NFL game
const arbs = await detector.findArbitrage({
  sport: 'americanfootball_nfl',
  market: 'h2h',  // moneyline
  event: 'chiefs-vs-bills'
});

for (const arb of arbs) {
  console.log(`Arbitrage Opportunity: ${arb.profitMargin.toFixed(2)}% profit`);
  console.log(`Bet ${arb.stakes.outcome1} on ${arb.bookmaker1} (${arb.odds1})`);
  console.log(`Bet ${arb.stakes.outcome2} on ${arb.bookmaker2} (${arb.odds2})`);
  console.log(`Guaranteed profit: $${arb.profit.toFixed(2)}`);
}
```

## Real-World Use Cases

### 1. NFL Betting with Kelly Criterion

```typescript
import { RiskManager, OddsAnalyzer } from '@neural-trader/sports-betting';

// Your predictive model gives Chiefs 60% win probability
const modelProbability = 0.60;
const oddsData = await OddsAnalyzer.getOdds('americanfootball_nfl', 'chiefs-vs-bills');

// Best available odds: Chiefs -150 (1.67 decimal)
const bestOdds = 1.67;

// Calculate implied probability from odds
const impliedProbability = 1 / bestOdds; // 0.598 (59.8%)

// We have an edge: 60% > 59.8%
const edge = modelProbability - impliedProbability; // 0.002 (0.2% edge)

// Kelly Criterion calculation
const kelly = riskManager.calculateKelly(
  modelProbability,  // 60% win rate
  bestOdds - 1,      // 0.67 (win amount)
  1.0                // 1.0 (loss amount)
);

// With $50,000 bankroll
const bankroll = 50000;
const fullKelly = bankroll * kelly.kellyFraction;  // $600 (risky)
const halfKelly = bankroll * kelly.halfKelly;      // $300 (recommended)
const quarterKelly = bankroll * kelly.quarterKelly; // $150 (conservative)

console.log(`Edge: ${(edge * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(`Recommended bet (Half Kelly): $${halfKelly.toFixed(2)}`);
```

### 2. Multi-Leg Arbitrage (Guaranteed Profit)

```typescript
import { ArbitrageDetector, SyndicateManager } from '@neural-trader/sports-betting';

const detector = new ArbitrageDetector({
  minProfitMargin: 0.02,  // 2% minimum
  maxStake: 10000,
  bookmakers: ['bet365', 'draftkings', 'fanduel', 'pinnacle']
});

// Tennis match: Djokovic vs Nadal
const arb = await detector.findArbitrage({
  sport: 'tennis',
  market: 'h2h',
  event: 'djokovic-vs-nadal'
});

if (arb) {
  console.log('=== Arbitrage Opportunity ===');
  console.log(`Sport: ${arb.sport}`);
  console.log(`Event: ${arb.event}`);
  console.log(`Profit Margin: ${(arb.profitMargin * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);

  // Djokovic at DraftKings: 1.95
  console.log(`\nBet 1: ${arb.player1} at ${arb.bookmaker1}`);
  console.log(`Odds: ${arb.odds1}`);
  console.log(`Stake: $${arb.stakes.player1.toFixed(2)}`);

  // Nadal at Bet365: 2.10
  console.log(`\nBet 2: ${arb.player2} at ${arb.bookmaker2}`);
  console.log(`Odds: ${arb.odds2}`);
  console.log(`Stake: $${arb.stakes.player2.toFixed(2)}`);

  // Guaranteed profit
  console.log(`\nTotal Stake: $${arb.totalStake.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log(`Guaranteed Profit: $${arb.profit.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log(`ROI: ${(arb.roi * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
}
```

### 3. Syndicate Betting Pool

```typescript
import { SyndicateManager } from '@neural-trader/sports-betting';

const syndicate = new SyndicateManager({
  id: 'nfl-week-1-pool',
  name: 'NFL Week 1 Betting Pool',
  totalCapital: 100000,
  distributionModel: 'hybrid',  // Combines contribution and performance
  minProfitMargin: 0.01,
  maxPositionSize: 0.1  // Max 10% per bet
});

// Add members with capital contributions
await syndicate.addMember({
  id: 'member1',
  name: 'John',
  email: 'john@example.com',
  contribution: 40000,
  role: 'lead-analyst'
});

await syndicate.addMember({
  id: 'member2',
  name: 'Sarah',
  email: 'sarah@example.com',
  contribution: 30000,
  role: 'data-scientist'
});

await syndicate.addMember({
  id: 'member3',
  name: 'Mike',
  email: 'mike@example.com',
  contribution: 30000,
  role: 'trader'
});

// Find best opportunities across bookmakers
const opportunities = await syndicate.findOpportunities({
  sport: 'americanfootball_nfl',
  minEdge: 0.02,  // 2% minimum edge
  minProfitMargin: 0.01
});

// Allocate capital using Kelly Criterion
const allocation = await syndicate.allocateFunds(opportunities, {
  strategy: 'kelly_criterion',
  riskFactor: 0.5  // Half Kelly
});

console.log('=== Syndicate Allocation ===');
for (const bet of allocation.bets) {
  console.log(`${bet.event}: $${bet.stake.toFixed(2)} at ${bet.bookmaker}`);
  console.log(`Expected ROI: ${(bet.expectedROI * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
}

// After week 1: Distribute profits
const weeklyProfit = 8500;  // $8,500 profit
const distribution = await syndicate.distributeProfits(weeklyProfit, {
  model: 'hybrid',
  performanceWeight: 0.3,
  contributionWeight: 0.7
});

console.log('\n=== Profit Distribution ===');
for (const member of distribution.members) {
  console.log(`${member.name}: $${member.share.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log(`ROI: ${(member.roi * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
}
```

## Kelly Criterion Deep Dive

### Understanding the Formula

The Kelly Criterion calculates the optimal bet size as a fraction of your bankroll:

```
f* = (bp - q) / b

Where:
f* = fraction of bankroll to bet
b = odds received (decimal odds - 1)
p = probability of winning
q = probability of losing (1 - p)
```

### Kelly Variations

```typescript
const kelly = riskManager.calculateKelly(winRate, avgWin, avgLoss);

// Full Kelly (maximum growth, high volatility)
const fullKelly = kelly.kellyFraction;

// Half Kelly (recommended - reduces volatility by 50%)
const halfKelly = kelly.halfKelly;

// Quarter Kelly (conservative - reduces volatility by 75%)
const quarterKelly = kelly.quarterKelly;
```

### Example Calculations

```typescript
// Scenario 1: Strong Edge
// 60% win rate, 2.0x odds
const strong = riskManager.calculateKelly(0.60, 2.0, 1.0);
// Full Kelly: 20% of bankroll
// Half Kelly: 10% of bankroll

// Scenario 2: Moderate Edge
// 52% win rate, 1.95x odds
const moderate = riskManager.calculateKelly(0.52, 1.95, 1.0);
// Full Kelly: 4% of bankroll
// Half Kelly: 2% of bankroll

// Scenario 3: Slight Edge
// 51% win rate, 2.0x odds
const slight = riskManager.calculateKelly(0.51, 2.0, 1.0);
// Full Kelly: 2% of bankroll
// Half Kelly: 1% of bankroll
```

## Risk Management Integration

### Position Limits and Drawdown Controls

```typescript
import { RiskManager } from '@neural-trader/sports-betting';
import { PortfolioRiskManager } from '@neural-trader/risk';

const portfolioRisk = new PortfolioRiskManager({
  maxDrawdown: 0.20,        // 20% max drawdown
  maxPositionSize: 0.10,     // 10% max per bet
  maxDailyLoss: 0.05,        // 5% max daily loss
  maxCorrelation: 0.7        // Limit correlated bets
});

const sportsRisk = new RiskManager({
  confidenceLevel: 0.95,
  lookbackPeriods: 100,
  method: 'historical'
});

// Calculate bet with risk constraints
async function placeBetWithRiskManagement(
  event: string,
  winProbability: number,
  odds: number,
  bankroll: number
) {
  // Kelly calculation
  const kelly = sportsRisk.calculateKelly(winProbability, odds - 1, 1.0);
  const rawBetSize = bankroll * kelly.halfKelly;

  // Check risk limits
  const riskCheck = await portfolioRisk.validatePosition({
    size: rawBetSize,
    type: 'sports_bet',
    event: event,
    expectedReturn: (odds - 1) * winProbability - (1 - winProbability)
  });

  if (!riskCheck.approved) {
    console.log(`Bet rejected: ${riskCheck.reason}`);
    return null;
  }

  // Adjust bet size based on risk limits
  const adjustedBetSize = Math.min(
    rawBetSize,
    riskCheck.maxSize,
    bankroll * 0.10  // Hard limit: 10% max
  );

  console.log(`Kelly Recommended: $${rawBetSize.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log(`Risk-Adjusted: $${adjustedBetSize.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log(`Risk Score: ${riskCheck.riskScore.toFixed(2)}/10`);

  return {
    event,
    betSize: adjustedBetSize,
    odds,
    expectedValue: adjustedBetSize * ((odds - 1) * winProbability - (1 - winProbability))
  };
}
```

### Correlation Analysis

```typescript
// Avoid overexposure to correlated outcomes
const correlationMatrix = await portfolioRisk.analyzeCorrelation([
  { event: 'chiefs-vs-bills', bet: 'chiefs_ml' },
  { event: 'chiefs-vs-bills', bet: 'over_54.5' },
  { event: 'chiefs-vs-bills', bet: 'chiefs_-3' }
]);

// These bets are highly correlated - limit total exposure
if (correlationMatrix.maxCorrelation > 0.7) {
  console.log('Warning: High correlation detected');
  console.log('Reducing total position size...');
}
```

## API Reference

### RiskManager

```typescript
class RiskManager {
  constructor(config: RiskConfig);

  calculateKelly(
    winRate: number,
    avgWin: number,
    avgLoss: number
  ): KellyResult;

  calculateVaR(
    positions: Position[],
    confidenceLevel: number
  ): number;

  calculateExpectedValue(
    probability: number,
    odds: number,
    stake: number
  ): number;
}

interface KellyResult {
  kellyFraction: number;    // Full Kelly
  halfKelly: number;        // Recommended
  quarterKelly: number;     // Conservative
  expectedGrowth: number;   // Expected bankroll growth rate
  risk: number;             // Volatility measure
}
```

### ArbitrageDetector

```typescript
class ArbitrageDetector {
  constructor(config: ArbitrageConfig);

  findArbitrage(options: {
    sport: string;
    market: string;
    event: string;
  }): Promise<Arbitrage[]>;

  calculateStakes(
    odds1: number,
    odds2: number,
    totalStake: number
  ): { stake1: number; stake2: number };

  monitorOpportunities(
    callback: (arb: Arbitrage) => void
  ): void;
}

interface Arbitrage {
  sport: string;
  event: string;
  bookmaker1: string;
  bookmaker2: string;
  odds1: number;
  odds2: number;
  stakes: { outcome1: number; outcome2: number };
  profit: number;
  profitMargin: number;
  roi: number;
}
```

### SyndicateManager

```typescript
class SyndicateManager {
  constructor(config: SyndicateConfig);

  addMember(member: Member): Promise<void>;

  allocateFunds(
    opportunities: Opportunity[],
    options: AllocationOptions
  ): Promise<Allocation>;

  distributeProfits(
    totalProfit: number,
    model: DistributionModel
  ): Promise<Distribution>;

  getStatus(): SyndicateStatus;
}

interface SyndicateConfig {
  id: string;
  name: string;
  totalCapital: number;
  distributionModel: 'proportional' | 'hybrid' | 'performance';
  minProfitMargin: number;
  maxPositionSize: number;
}
```

## Supported Sports and Markets

| Sport | Markets | Bookmakers |
|-------|---------|------------|
| NFL | Moneyline, Spread, Totals, Props | 50+ |
| NBA | Moneyline, Spread, Totals, Props | 50+ |
| MLB | Moneyline, Run Line, Totals | 50+ |
| Soccer | 1X2, Over/Under, Both Teams Score | 50+ |
| Tennis | Moneyline, Set Betting, Game Totals | 40+ |
| MMA | Moneyline, Method of Victory | 30+ |

## Performance

- **Arbitrage Detection**: <10ms per market scan
- **Kelly Calculation**: <1ms per calculation
- **Odds Comparison**: 50+ bookmakers in parallel
- **Real-Time Updates**: Sub-second latency
- **Rust WASM**: 10-50x faster than JavaScript

## Best Practices

1. **Use Half Kelly**: Full Kelly is too aggressive; half Kelly reduces volatility
2. **Verify Edge**: Only bet when you have a proven edge (model accuracy >52%)
3. **Track Performance**: Monitor actual vs expected results
4. **Manage Bankroll**: Never bet more than 5% on a single event
5. **Account for Correlation**: Limit exposure to correlated outcomes
6. **Monitor Limits**: Stay under bookmaker betting limits
7. **Tax Considerations**: Track all bets for tax reporting

## Examples

See `/examples` directory for:
- `kelly-criterion-nfl.ts` - NFL betting with Kelly sizing
- `arbitrage-tennis.ts` - Tennis arbitrage detection
- `syndicate-pool.ts` - Group betting pool management
- `risk-management.ts` - Advanced risk controls
- `correlation-analysis.ts` - Portfolio correlation

## Dependencies

- `@neural-trader/core` - Core trading engine
- `@neural-trader/risk` - Risk management and VaR
- `odds-api` - Real-time odds data
- `wasm-pack` - Rust WASM bindings

## License

MIT OR Apache-2.0