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desc="" name="description" content="辛普森悖论揭示数据整体趋势与分组趋势可能矛盾，如肾结石治疗案例中，A疗法整体成功率高于B疗法，但分组看B对大小结石成功率均高于A。其根源是忽略混杂变量，警示需通过科学分组与因果分析避免数据误读。 - MHuiG - Magicland"><meta property="og:type" content="article"><meta property="og:title" content="辛普森悖论|你还相信数据吗"><meta property="og:url" content="https://blog.mhuig.top/p/2f345bb/"><meta property="og:site_name" content="Magicland"><meta property="og:description" content="辛普森悖论揭示数据整体趋势与分组趋势可能矛盾，如肾结石治疗案例中，A疗法整体成功率高于B疗法，但分组看B对大小结石成功率均高于A。其根源是忽略混杂变量，警示需通过科学分组与因果分析避免数据误读。"><meta property="og:locale"><meta property="og:image" content="https://blog.mhuig.top/lib/favicon/android-chrome-192x192.png"><meta property="article:published_time" content="2022-09-22T08:14:00.000Z"><meta property="article:modified_time" content="2025-11-20T10:18:00.000Z"><meta property="article:author" content="MHuiG"><meta property="article:tag" content="探索"><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary"><meta name="twitter:image" 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noreferrer" href="https://github.com/MHuiG" title="GitHub" active-action="action-https:githubcomMHuiG"><i class="fa-brands fa-github fa-fw"></i> GitHub</a></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></div></div></div></header><div id="l_body"><div id="l_cover"><div id="none" class="cover-wrapper post featured" style="display:none"><div class="cover-bg lazyload placeholder" data-bg=""></div><div class="cover-body"><div class="top"><p class="title">Magicland</p><p class="subtitle">「看庭前花开花落,望天上云卷云舒」</p></div><div class="bottom"><div class="menu navigation"><div class="list-h"><a target="_blank" rel="external nofollow noopener noreferrer" href="https://github.com/MHuiG" active-action="action-https:githubcomMHuiG"><i class="fa-brands fa-github color-github fa-fw"></i><p>Github</p></a><a href="/pages/friends/" active-action="action-pagesfriends"><i class="fa-duotone fa-link color-friends fa-fw"></i><p>友链</p></a><a href="/pages/about/" active-action="action-pagesabout"><i class="fa-duotone fa-user-tie color-about fa-fw"></i><p>关于</p></a><a href="https://www.travellings.cn/go-by-clouds.html" target="_blank" active-action="action-https:wwwtravellingscngo-by-cloudshtml" rel="external nofollow noopener noreferrer"><i class="fa-duotone fa-subway color-travellings fa-fw"></i><p>Travelling</p></a></div></div></div></div><div id="scroll-down" style="display:none"><i class="fa fa-chevron-down scroll-down-effects"></i></div></div></div><div id="safearea"><div class="body-wrapper"><div id="l_main" class=""><article itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Article" class="article post white-box reveal md shadow floatable blur article-type-post" id="post" itemprop="blogPost"><link itemprop="mainEntityOfPage" href="https://blog.mhuig.top/p/2f345bb/"><span hidden="" itemprop="publisher" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Organization"><meta itemprop="name" content="Magicland"></span><span hidden="" itemprop="post" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/CreativeWork"><meta itemprop="name" content="辛普森悖论|你还相信数据吗"><meta itemprop="description" content="辛普森悖论揭示数据整体趋势与分组趋势可能矛盾，如肾结石治疗案例中，A疗法整体成功率高于B疗法，但分组看B对大小结石成功率均高于A。其根源是忽略混杂变量，警示需通过科学分组与因果分析避免数据误读。"></span><span hidden=""><meta itemprop="image" content="/lib/favicon/android-chrome-192x192.png"></span><div class="article-meta" id="top"><h1 class="title" itemprop="name headline"> 辛普森悖论|你还相信数据吗</h1><div class="new-meta-box"><div class="new-meta-item author" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> <a itemprop="url" class="author" target="_blank" href="https://mhuig.top/" rel="nofollow noopener" alt="author"><img itemprop="image" src="/lib/avatar/avatar-16.webp" class="lazyload" data-srcset="/lib/avatar/avatar-16.webp" srcset="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///////yH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw=="><p itemprop="name">MHuiG</p></a></div><div class="new-meta-item wordcount"><a class="notlink"><i class="fa-duotone fa-keyboard fa-fw" aria-hidden="true"></i><p>字数：1.3k 字</p></a></div><div class="new-meta-item readtime"><a class="notlink"><i class="fa-duotone fa-hourglass-half fa-fw" aria-hidden="true"></i><p>时长：4 分钟</p></a></div></div></div><div id="layoutHelper-page-plugins"></div><div id="post-body" itemprop="articleBody"><blockquote><p>数据是一个有力的武器，它既能被用来澄清现实，也能被用来混淆是非</p></blockquote><p>你知不知道，数据也会说谎？</p><div class="story post-story"><h2 id="一个栗子"><a href="#一个栗子" class="headerlink" title="一个栗子"></a>一个栗子</h2><p>假设您患有肾结石并去看医生。医生告诉你有两种治疗方法，治疗 A（开放手术 open surgery）和治疗 B（体外冲击波碎石术 ESWL）。</p><p>你问哪种治疗效果更好，医生说：“一项研究发现治疗 A 的成功概率高于治疗 B。”</p><p>你说：“我会接受治疗 A，谢谢！”</p><p>这时医生打断你，“但同样的研究还研究了哪种治疗效果更好，这取决于患者是大肾结石还是小肾结石。”</p><p>你说：“好吧，我有大肾结石还是小肾结石？”</p><p>你说话的时候，医生又打断了你，说：“其实没关系。你看，他们发现治疗 B 比治疗 A 成功的概率更高，不管你的肾结石是大还是小。”</p><p>你可能想知道你是否没看错。听起来不可能。但这是真的：在<a target="_blank" rel="external nofollow noopener noreferrer" href="/go.html?u=aHR0cDovL3d3dy5uY2JpLm5sbS5uaWguZ292L3BtYy9hcnRpY2xlcy9QTUMxMzM5OTgxLw">一项实际研究</a>中，发现治疗 B 比治疗 A 对大肾结石和小肾结石起作用的概率更高，尽管事实上治疗 A 的总体 概率高于治疗 B。这是研究数据：</p><table><thead><tr><th align="center"></th><th align="center">治疗 A 有帮助</th><th align="center">治疗 B 有帮助</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="center">大肾结石</td><td align="center">69% (55 / 80)</td><td align="center">73% (192 / 263)</td></tr><tr><td align="center">小肾结石</td><td align="center">87% (234 / 270)</td><td align="center">93% (81 / 87)</td></tr><tr><td align="center">所有患者</td><td align="center">83% (289 / 350)</td><td align="center">78% (273 / 350)</td></tr></tbody></table><p>表中的第一项显示，80 名大肾结石患者接受了 A 治疗，治疗帮助了其中 55 人，成功率为 69%。这不如治疗 B 好，它帮助了 263 名大肾结石患者中的 192 人，成功率为 73%。以类似的方式，第二行显示治疗 B 比治疗 A 对患有小肾结石的人更有效。</p><p>但是当你把每一列的数字加起来时，你会发现治疗 A 确实比治疗 B 整体效果更好。</p><p>值得花时间检查所有数字加起来检验一下，并说服自己我没有欺骗你.</p><p>刚刚展示的这种现象被称为辛普森悖论。如果你和包括我在内的大多数人一样，那么辛普森悖论在你第一次见到它时就会令人震惊。因为它违反了我们对世界推理的本能方式。而且，正如我们看到的那样，辛普森悖论不仅是一种怪异的现象，而且它经常在具有重要决策后果的地方出现。</p></div><div class="story post-story"><h2 id="表达式"><a href="#表达式" class="headerlink" title="表达式"></a>表达式</h2><p>我们抽离出符号表达：</p><table><thead><tr><th align="center"></th><th align="center">统计对象 1</th><th align="center">统计对象 2</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="center">分项指标 1</td><td align="center"><mjx-container class="MathJax" jax="SVG" overflow="overflow"><svg style="vertical-align:-1.091ex" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="2.499ex" height="2.878ex" role="img" focusable="false" viewBox="0 -789.7 1104.4 1271.9"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="scale(1,-1)"><g data-mml-node="math" data-latex="\frac{q_1}{p_1}"><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_1}{p_1}"><g data-mml-node="msub" transform="translate(240.2,477.2) scale(0.707)" data-latex="q_1 "><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 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364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="2"><path data-c="32" d="M237 666C186 666 143 648 106 612 69 576 50 534 50 483 50 449 75 424 106 424 136 424 161 450 161 480 161 513 137 536 105 536 102 536 100 536 98 535 117 584 161 627 224 627 306 627 352 556 352 470 352 403 318 331 250 255L62 43C49 28 50 29 50 0L421 0 450 180 417 180C409 129 402 100 396 91 391 86 361 84 306 84L139 84 236 179C304 243 390 312 419 365 439 400 449 435 449 470 449 588 357 666 237 666Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="msub" transform="translate(220,-345) scale(0.707)" data-latex="p_2 "><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="p"><path data-c="1D45D" d="M355 442C311 442 269 419 228 373 217 419 186 442 137 442 96 442 66 409 45 344 35 311 30 292 30 286 30 277 35 272 46 272 51 272 54 273 57 275 62 284 65 291 66 298 84 374 107 412 134 412 152 412 161 398 161 371 161 356 159 339 154 321L44-118C35-151 34-155-5-155-23-155-32-163-32-178-32-189-26-194-15-194 0-194 52-191 67-191 86-191 146-194 165-194 180-194 187-186 187-170 187-160 178-155 159-155 141-155 114-156 114-144 114-131 155 26 159 43 179 6 209-13 249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="2"><path data-c="32" d="M237 666C186 666 143 648 106 612 69 576 50 534 50 483 50 449 75 424 106 424 136 424 161 450 161 480 161 513 137 536 105 536 102 536 100 536 98 535 117 584 161 627 224 627 306 627 352 556 352 470 352 403 318 331 250 255L62 43C49 28 50 29 50 0L421 0 450 180 417 180C409 129 402 100 396 91 391 86 361 84 306 84L139 84 236 179C304 243 390 312 419 365 439 400 449 435 449 470 449 588 357 666 237 666Z"></path></g></g><rect width="864.4" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></td></tr><tr><td align="center">分项指标 2</td><td align="center"><mjx-container class="MathJax" jax="SVG" overflow="overflow"><svg style="vertical-align:-1.091ex" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="2.499ex" height="2.878ex" role="img" focusable="false" viewBox="0 -789.7 1104.4 1271.9"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="scale(1,-1)"><g data-mml-node="math" data-latex="\frac{q_3}{p_3}"><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_3}{p_3}"><g data-mml-node="msub" transform="translate(240.2,477.2) scale(0.707)" data-latex="q_3 "><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="3"><path data-c="33" d="M303 353C369 378 431 441 431 526 431 569 410 604 369 631 333 654 292 666 246 666 201 666 162 654 127 631 88 605 68 571 68 528 68 495 90 472 122 472 154 472 176 495 176 527 176 560 157 578 119 580 145 615 186 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249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="3"><path data-c="33" d="M303 353C369 378 431 441 431 526 431 569 410 604 369 631 333 654 292 666 246 666 201 666 162 654 127 631 88 605 68 571 68 528 68 495 90 472 122 472 154 472 176 495 176 527 176 560 157 578 119 580 145 615 186 633 242 633 302 633 332 598 332 527 332 485 324 450 309 421 282 373 245 364 183 364 171 362 165 357 165 348 165 333 172 333 192 333L235 333C310 333 348 280 348 173 348 88 317 14 241 14 176 14 128 36 99 80 134 79 160 105 160 139 160 173 135 198 101 198 62 198 42 178 42 137 42 88 64 49 108 18 147-9 193-22 244-22 301-22 350-3 393 34 436 71 457 117 457 173 457 267 383 332 303 353Z"></path></g></g><rect width="864.4" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></td><td align="center"><mjx-container class="MathJax" jax="SVG" overflow="overflow"><svg style="vertical-align:-1.091ex" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="2.499ex" height="2.878ex" role="img" focusable="false" viewBox="0 -789.7 1104.4 1271.9"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="scale(1,-1)"><g data-mml-node="math" data-latex="\frac{q_4}{p_4}"><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_4}{p_4}"><g data-mml-node="msub" transform="translate(240.2,477.2) scale(0.707)" data-latex="q_4 "><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="4"><path data-c="34" d="M353 677C344 677 336 672 330 663L28 199 28 163 289 163 289 81C289 63 285 51 278 46 271 41 252 39 219 39L194 39 194 0C223 2 269 3 331 3 393 3 439 2 468 0L468 39 443 39C410 39 391 41 384 46 377 51 373 63 373 81L373 163 471 163 471 202 373 202 373 660C373 670 366 677 353 677M295 553 295 202 67 202Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="msub" transform="translate(220,-345) scale(0.707)" data-latex="p_4 "><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="p"><path data-c="1D45D" d="M355 442C311 442 269 419 228 373 217 419 186 442 137 442 96 442 66 409 45 344 35 311 30 292 30 286 30 277 35 272 46 272 51 272 54 273 57 275 62 284 65 291 66 298 84 374 107 412 134 412 152 412 161 398 161 371 161 356 159 339 154 321L44-118C35-151 34-155-5-155-23-155-32-163-32-178-32-189-26-194-15-194 0-194 52-191 67-191 86-191 146-194 165-194 180-194 187-186 187-170 187-160 178-155 159-155 141-155 114-156 114-144 114-131 155 26 159 43 179 6 209-13 249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="4"><path data-c="34" d="M353 677C344 677 336 672 330 663L28 199 28 163 289 163 289 81C289 63 285 51 278 46 271 41 252 39 219 39L194 39 194 0C223 2 269 3 331 3 393 3 439 2 468 0L468 39 443 39C410 39 391 41 384 46 377 51 373 63 373 81L373 163 471 163 471 202 373 202 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148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="2"><path data-c="32" d="M237 666C186 666 143 648 106 612 69 576 50 534 50 483 50 449 75 424 106 424 136 424 161 450 161 480 161 513 137 536 105 536 102 536 100 536 98 535 117 584 161 627 224 627 306 627 352 556 352 470 352 403 318 331 250 255L62 43C49 28 50 29 50 0L421 0 450 180 417 180C409 129 402 100 396 91 391 86 361 84 306 84L139 84 236 179C304 243 390 312 419 365 439 400 449 435 449 470 449 588 357 666 237 666Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="mo" 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34-155-5-155-23-155-32-163-32-178-32-189-26-194-15-194 0-194 52-191 67-191 86-191 146-194 165-194 180-194 187-186 187-170 187-160 178-155 159-155 141-155 114-156 114-144 114-131 155 26 159 43 179 6 209-13 249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="2"><path data-c="32" d="M237 666C186 666 143 648 106 612 69 576 50 534 50 483 50 449 75 424 106 424 136 424 161 450 161 480 161 513 137 536 105 536 102 536 100 536 98 535 117 584 161 627 224 627 306 627 352 556 352 470 352 403 318 331 250 255L62 43C49 28 50 29 50 0L421 0 450 180 417 180C409 129 402 100 396 91 391 86 361 84 306 84L139 84 236 179C304 243 390 312 419 365 439 400 449 435 449 470 449 588 357 666 237 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213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="4"><path data-c="34" d="M353 677C344 677 336 672 330 663L28 199 28 163 289 163 289 81C289 63 285 51 278 46 271 41 252 39 219 39L194 39 194 0C223 2 269 3 331 3 393 3 439 2 468 0L468 39 443 39C410 39 391 41 384 46 377 51 373 63 373 81L373 163 471 163 471 202 373 202 373 660C373 670 366 677 353 677M295 553 295 202 67 202Z"></path></g></g></g><rect width="2078.9" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></td></tr></tbody></table><p>如果</p><p><mjx-container class="MathJax" jax="SVG" overflow="overflow" display="true" width="full" style="min-width:28.928ex"><svg style="vertical-align:-1.695ex;min-width:28.928ex" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="100%" height="4.52ex" role="img" focusable="false"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="scale(0.0181,-0.0181) translate(0, -1249)"><g data-mml-node="math" data-latex="
\frac{q_1}{p_1}>\frac{q_2}{p_2},\frac{q_3}{p_3}>\frac{q_4}{p_4}
"><g data-mml-node="mtable" data-latex="
\frac{q_1}{p_1}>\frac{q_2}{p_2},\frac{q_3}{p_3}>\frac{q_4}{p_4}
" transform="translate(2078,0) translate(-2078,0)"><g transform="translate(0 1249) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0) scale(55.25)"><svg data-table="true" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid" viewBox="4315 -1249 1 1998"><g transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g data-mml-node="mlabeledtr" transform="translate(0,131)"><g data-mml-node="mtd"><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_1}{p_1}"><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="q_1 " transform="translate(248.5,676)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="1"><path data-c="31" d="M269 666C228 624 168 603 89 603L89 564C141 564 184 572 217 588L217 82C217 64 213 52 204 47 195 42 170 39 130 39L95 39 95 0C120 2 174 3 257 3 340 3 394 2 419 0L419 39 384 39C343 39 318 42 310 47 302 52 297 64 297 82L297 636C297 660 295 666 269 666Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="p_1 " transform="translate(220,-686)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="p"><path data-c="1D45D" d="M355 442C311 442 269 419 228 373 217 419 186 442 137 442 96 442 66 409 45 344 35 311 30 292 30 286 30 277 35 272 46 272 51 272 54 273 57 275 62 284 65 291 66 298 84 374 107 412 134 412 152 412 161 398 161 371 161 356 159 339 154 321L44-118C35-151 34-155-5-155-23-155-32-163-32-178-32-189-26-194-15-194 0-194 52-191 67-191 86-191 146-194 165-194 180-194 187-186 187-170 187-160 178-155 159-155 141-155 114-156 114-144 114-131 155 26 159 43 179 6 209-13 249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="1"><path data-c="31" d="M269 666C228 624 168 603 89 603L89 564C141 564 184 572 217 588L217 82C217 64 213 52 204 47 195 42 170 39 130 39L95 39 95 0C120 2 174 3 257 3 340 3 394 2 419 0L419 39 384 39C343 39 318 42 310 47 302 52 297 64 297 82L297 636C297 660 295 666 269 666Z"></path></g></g><rect width="1139.6" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g><g data-mml-node="mo" data-latex=">" transform="translate(1657.3,0)"><path data-c="3E" d="M686 227C696 232 701 239 701 250 701 261 696 268 686 273L112 545C109 546 105 547 101 547 85 547 77 539 77 522 77 513 82 506 91 502L625 250 91-2C82-6 77-13 77-22 77-39 85-47 101-47 105-47 109-46 112-45Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_2}{p_2}" transform="translate(2713.1,0)"><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="q_2 " transform="translate(248.5,676)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="2"><path data-c="32" d="M237 666C186 666 143 648 106 612 69 576 50 534 50 483 50 449 75 424 106 424 136 424 161 450 161 480 161 513 137 536 105 536 102 536 100 536 98 535 117 584 161 627 224 627 306 627 352 556 352 470 352 403 318 331 250 255L62 43C49 28 50 29 50 0L421 0 450 180 417 180C409 129 402 100 396 91 391 86 361 84 306 84L139 84 236 179C304 243 390 312 419 365 439 400 449 435 449 470 449 588 357 666 237 666Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="p_2 " transform="translate(220,-686)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="p"><path data-c="1D45D" d="M355 442C311 442 269 419 228 373 217 419 186 442 137 442 96 442 66 409 45 344 35 311 30 292 30 286 30 277 35 272 46 272 51 272 54 273 57 275 62 284 65 291 66 298 84 374 107 412 134 412 152 412 161 398 161 371 161 356 159 339 154 321L44-118C35-151 34-155-5-155-23-155-32-163-32-178-32-189-26-194-15-194 0-194 52-191 67-191 86-191 146-194 165-194 180-194 187-186 187-170 187-160 178-155 159-155 141-155 114-156 114-144 114-131 155 26 159 43 179 6 209-13 249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="2"><path data-c="32" d="M237 666C186 666 143 648 106 612 69 576 50 534 50 483 50 449 75 424 106 424 136 424 161 450 161 480 161 513 137 536 105 536 102 536 100 536 98 535 117 584 161 627 224 627 306 627 352 556 352 470 352 403 318 331 250 255L62 43C49 28 50 29 50 0L421 0 450 180 417 180C409 129 402 100 396 91 391 86 361 84 306 84L139 84 236 179C304 243 390 312 419 365 439 400 449 435 449 470 449 588 357 666 237 666Z"></path></g></g><rect width="1139.6" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g><g data-mml-node="mo" data-latex="," transform="translate(4092.7,0)"><path data-c="2C" d="M139 106C107 106 86 82 86 50 86 20 109-5 139-5 153-5 165-1 174 8L175 0C175-63 154-117 112-160 105-168 101-174 101-178 101-188 105-193 114-193 123-193 135-181 152-158 186-110 203-57 203 0 203 53 185 106 139 106Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_3}{p_3}" transform="translate(4537.3,0)"><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="q_3 " transform="translate(248.5,676)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="3"><path data-c="33" d="M303 353C369 378 431 441 431 526 431 569 410 604 369 631 333 654 292 666 246 666 201 666 162 654 127 631 88 605 68 571 68 528 68 495 90 472 122 472 154 472 176 495 176 527 176 560 157 578 119 580 145 615 186 633 242 633 302 633 332 598 332 527 332 485 324 450 309 421 282 373 245 364 183 364 171 362 165 357 165 348 165 333 172 333 192 333L235 333C310 333 348 280 348 173 348 88 317 14 241 14 176 14 128 36 99 80 134 79 160 105 160 139 160 173 135 198 101 198 62 198 42 178 42 137 42 88 64 49 108 18 147-9 193-22 244-22 301-22 350-3 393 34 436 71 457 117 457 173 457 267 383 332 303 353Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="p_3 " transform="translate(220,-686)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="p"><path data-c="1D45D" d="M355 442C311 442 269 419 228 373 217 419 186 442 137 442 96 442 66 409 45 344 35 311 30 292 30 286 30 277 35 272 46 272 51 272 54 273 57 275 62 284 65 291 66 298 84 374 107 412 134 412 152 412 161 398 161 371 161 356 159 339 154 321L44-118C35-151 34-155-5-155-23-155-32-163-32-178-32-189-26-194-15-194 0-194 52-191 67-191 86-191 146-194 165-194 180-194 187-186 187-170 187-160 178-155 159-155 141-155 114-156 114-144 114-131 155 26 159 43 179 6 209-13 249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="3"><path data-c="33" d="M303 353C369 378 431 441 431 526 431 569 410 604 369 631 333 654 292 666 246 666 201 666 162 654 127 631 88 605 68 571 68 528 68 495 90 472 122 472 154 472 176 495 176 527 176 560 157 578 119 580 145 615 186 633 242 633 302 633 332 598 332 527 332 485 324 450 309 421 282 373 245 364 183 364 171 362 165 357 165 348 165 333 172 333 192 333L235 333C310 333 348 280 348 173 348 88 317 14 241 14 176 14 128 36 99 80 134 79 160 105 160 139 160 173 135 198 101 198 62 198 42 178 42 137 42 88 64 49 108 18 147-9 193-22 244-22 301-22 350-3 393 34 436 71 457 117 457 173 457 267 383 332 303 353Z"></path></g></g><rect width="1139.6" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g><g data-mml-node="mo" data-latex=">" transform="translate(6194.7,0)"><path data-c="3E" d="M686 227C696 232 701 239 701 250 701 261 696 268 686 273L112 545C109 546 105 547 101 547 85 547 77 539 77 522 77 513 82 506 91 502L625 250 91-2C82-6 77-13 77-22 77-39 85-47 101-47 105-47 109-46 112-45Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_4}{p_4}" transform="translate(7250.4,0)"><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="q_4 " transform="translate(248.5,676)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="4"><path data-c="34" d="M353 677C344 677 336 672 330 663L28 199 28 163 289 163 289 81C289 63 285 51 278 46 271 41 252 39 219 39L194 39 194 0C223 2 269 3 331 3 393 3 439 2 468 0L468 39 443 39C410 39 391 41 384 46 377 51 373 63 373 81L373 163 471 163 471 202 373 202 373 660C373 670 366 677 353 677M295 553 295 202 67 202Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="p_4 " transform="translate(220,-686)"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="p"><path data-c="1D45D" d="M355 442C311 442 269 419 228 373 217 419 186 442 137 442 96 442 66 409 45 344 35 311 30 292 30 286 30 277 35 272 46 272 51 272 54 273 57 275 62 284 65 291 66 298 84 374 107 412 134 412 152 412 161 398 161 371 161 356 159 339 154 321L44-118C35-151 34-155-5-155-23-155-32-163-32-178-32-189-26-194-15-194 0-194 52-191 67-191 86-191 146-194 165-194 180-194 187-186 187-170 187-160 178-155 159-155 141-155 114-156 114-144 114-131 155 26 159 43 179 6 209-13 249-13 314-13 371 20 421 87 467 148 490 213 490 280 490 367 438 442 355 442M352 412C391 412 411 382 411 323 411 296 405 260 394 215 371 128 342 71 307 42 286 25 267 16 248 16 219 16 199 29 188 56 179 77 174 92 174 100L225 309C230 331 248 354 276 377 304 400 329 412 352 412Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(536,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="4"><path data-c="34" d="M353 677C344 677 336 672 330 663L28 199 28 163 289 163 289 81C289 63 285 51 278 46 271 41 252 39 219 39L194 39 194 0C223 2 269 3 331 3 393 3 439 2 468 0L468 39 443 39C410 39 391 41 384 46 377 51 373 63 373 81L373 163 471 163 471 202 373 202 373 660C373 670 366 677 353 677M295 553 295 202 67 202Z"></path></g></g><rect width="1139.6" height="60" x="120" y="220"></rect></g></g></g></g></svg><svg data-labels="true" preserveAspectRatio="xMaxYMid" viewBox="1278 -1249 1 1998"><g data-labels="true" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g data-mml-node="mtd" id="mjx-eqn:1" transform="translate(0,879)"><text data-id-align="true"></text><g data-idbox="true" transform="translate(0,-748)"><g data-mml-node="mtext" data-latex="\text{(1)}"><path data-c="28" d="M318-248C327-248 332-243 332-234 332-231 330-227 327-223 275-183 233-117 202-26 175 53 161 131 161 208L161 292C161 369 175 447 202 526 233 617 275 683 327 723 330 726 332 730 332 734 332 743 327 748 318 748 317 748 314 747 311 745 251 699 201 631 160 540 121 453 101 371 101 292L101 208C101 129 121 47 160-40 201-131 251-199 311-245 314-247 317-248 318-248Z"></path><path data-c="31" d="M269 666C228 624 168 603 89 603L89 564C141 564 184 572 217 588L217 82C217 64 213 52 204 47 195 42 170 39 130 39L95 39 95 0C120 2 174 3 257 3 340 3 394 2 419 0L419 39 384 39C343 39 318 42 310 47 302 52 297 64 297 82L297 636C297 660 295 666 269 666Z" transform="translate(389,0)"></path><path data-c="29" d="M78-245C138-199 188-131 229-40 268 47 288 129 288 208L288 292C288 371 268 453 229 540 188 631 138 699 78 745 75 747 72 748 71 748 62 748 57 743 57 734 57 730 59 726 62 723 114 683 156 617 187 526 214 447 228 369 228 292L228 208C228 131 214 53 187-26 156-117 114-183 62-223 59-227 57-231 57-234 57-243 62-248 71-248 72-248 75-247 78-245Z" transform="translate(889,0)"></path></g></g></g></g></svg></g></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></p><p>那么，推不出</p><p><mjx-container class="MathJax" jax="SVG" overflow="overflow" display="true" width="full" style="min-width:28.445ex"><svg style="vertical-align:-1.854ex;min-width:28.445ex" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="100%" height="4.839ex" role="img" focusable="false"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="scale(0.0181,-0.0181) translate(0, -1319.5)"><g data-mml-node="math" data-latex="
\frac{q_1+q_3}{p_1+p_3}>\frac{q_2+q_4}{p_2+p_4}
"><g data-mml-node="mtable" data-latex="
\frac{q_1+q_3}{p_1+p_3}>\frac{q_2+q_4}{p_2+p_4}
" transform="translate(2078,0) translate(-2078,0)"><g transform="translate(0 1319.5) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0) scale(55.25)"><svg data-table="true" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid" viewBox="4208.3 -1319.5 1 2139"><g transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g data-mml-node="mlabeledtr" transform="translate(0,60.5)"><g data-mml-node="mtd"><g data-mml-node="mfrac" data-latex="\frac{q_1+q_3}{p_1+p_3}"><g data-mml-node="mrow" data-latex="q_1 +q_3 " transform="translate(277,676)"><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="q_1"><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="q"><path data-c="1D45E" d="M372 377C352 420 321 442 280 442 215 442 158 409 109 342 63 280 40 216 40 149 40 62 90-13 173-13 209-13 245 4 282 38L241-126C238-141 229-150 215-153 210-154 197-155 174-155 168-156 164-156 162-156 153-157 148-165 148-179L148-183C151-190 157-194 165-194 184-194 244-191 263-191 282-191 345-194 364-194 378-194 385-186 385-170 385-160 375-155 356-155 338-155 313-156 313-144 313-140 314-133 317-123L452 427C452 436 447 441 438 441 420 441 382 391 372 377M340 373C349 352 354 338 354 329 354 328 353 322 351 313L327 216C308 144 299 107 298 105 279 70 224 16 176 16 137 16 117 46 117 105 117 151 148 263 162 300 181 347 225 412 280 412 307 412 327 399 340 373Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mn" transform="translate(479,-150) scale(0.707)" data-latex="1"><path data-c="31" d="M269 666C228 624 168 603 89 603L89 564C141 564 184 572 217 588L217 82C217 64 213 52 204 47 195 42 170 39 130 39L95 39 95 0C120 2 174 3 257 3 340 3 394 2 419 0L419 39 384 39C343 39 318 42 310 47 302 52 297 64 297 82L297 636C297 660 295 666 269 666Z"></path></g></g><g data-mml-node="mo" data-latex="+" transform="translate(1104.8,0)"><path data-c="2B" d="M698 274 413 274 413 559C413 575 405 583 389 583 373 583 365 575 365 559L365 274 80 274C64 274 56 266 56 250 56 234 64 226 80 226L365 226 365-59C365-75 373-83 389-83 405-83 413-75 413-59L413 226 698 226C714 226 722 234 722 250 722 263 711 274 698 274Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="msub" data-latex="q_3" 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id="我们忽略了什么"><a href="#我们忽略了什么" class="headerlink" title="我们忽略了什么"></a>我们忽略了什么</h2><p>从数据生成过程（因果模型）来看分析.</p><p>事实证明，小肾结石被认为是不严重的病例，治疗 B（体外冲击波碎石术 ESWL）比治疗 A（开放手术 open surgery）更加激进。</p><p>对于小肾结石，医生更有可能推荐保守疗法 A，因为病情不太严重，患者最有可能首先成功恢复。</p><p>对于严重的大肾结石，医生往往选择更激进的疗法 B。即使疗法 B 在这些病例中表现更好，由于是更严重的病例，疗法 B 的总体恢复率低于疗法 A.</p><p>在这个现实世界的例子中，肾结石的大小（病例的严重性）是一个混合变量，它会同时影响自变量（疗法）和因变量（恢复率）.</p><p><mjx-container class="MathJax" jax="SVG" overflow="overflow" display="true" width="full" style="min-width:33.359ex"><svg style="vertical-align:-.566ex;min-width:33.359ex" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="100%" height="2.262ex" role="img" focusable="false"><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="scale(0.0181,-0.0181) translate(0, -750)"><g data-mml-node="math" data-latex="
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314-247 317-248 318-248Z"></path><path data-c="34" d="M353 677C344 677 336 672 330 663L28 199 28 163 289 163 289 81C289 63 285 51 278 46 271 41 252 39 219 39L194 39 194 0C223 2 269 3 331 3 393 3 439 2 468 0L468 39 443 39C410 39 391 41 384 46 377 51 373 63 373 81L373 163 471 163 471 202 373 202 373 660C373 670 366 677 353 677M295 553 295 202 67 202Z" transform="translate(389,0)"></path><path data-c="29" d="M78-245C138-199 188-131 229-40 268 47 288 129 288 208L288 292C288 371 268 453 229 540 188 631 138 699 78 745 75 747 72 748 71 748 62 748 57 743 57 734 57 730 59 726 62 723 114 683 156 617 187 526 214 447 228 369 228 292L228 208C228 131 214 53 187-26 156-117 114-183 62-223 59-227 57-231 57-234 57-243 62-248 71-248 72-248 75-247 78-245Z" transform="translate(889,0)"></path></g></g></g></svg></g></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></p><p>为了确定哪种治疗方法确实更好，我们需要通过对两组数据进行分离并比较组内的恢复率而不是按组聚合来控制混合变量。</p><p><mjx-container class="MathJax" jax="SVG" overflow="overflow" display="true" width="full" 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小肾结石恢复率 = h(疗法)
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小肾结石恢复率 = h(疗法)
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大肾结石恢复率 = i(疗法)
"><g data-mml-node="mtable" data-latex="
大肾结石恢复率 = i(疗法)
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621M259 138C237 59 205 19 164 19 151 19 144 28 144 47 144 64 173 150 232 306 240 329 244 347 244 360 244 409 210 445 161 445 118 445 84 420 59 369 39 328 29 301 29 288 29 279 34 275 45 275 58 275 60 281 64 295 87 375 118 415 158 415 171 415 178 406 178 387 178 373 175 357 168 338 145 275 121 208 101 155 86 115 78 88 78 74 78 25 114-11 162-11 205-11 239 14 264 64 283 103 293 130 293 145 293 154 288 159 277 159 274 159 259 150 259 138Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mo" data-latex="(" transform="translate(8678.6,0)"><path data-c="28" d="M318-248C327-248 332-243 332-234 332-231 330-227 327-223 275-183 233-117 202-26 175 53 161 131 161 208L161 292C161 369 175 447 202 526 233 617 275 683 327 723 330 726 332 730 332 734 332 743 327 748 318 748 317 748 314 747 311 745 251 699 201 631 160 540 121 453 101 371 101 292L101 208C101 129 121 47 160-40 201-131 251-199 311-245 314-247 317-248 318-248Z"></path></g><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="疗" transform="translate(9067.6,0)"><text data-variant="normal" transform="scale(1,-1)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">疗</text></g><g data-mml-node="mi" data-latex="法" transform="translate(10067.6,0)"><text data-variant="normal" transform="scale(1,-1)" font-size="884px" font-family="serif">法</text></g><g data-mml-node="mo" data-latex=")" transform="translate(11067.6,0)"><path data-c="29" d="M78-245C138-199 188-131 229-40 268 47 288 129 288 208L288 292C288 371 268 453 229 540 188 631 138 699 78 745 75 747 72 748 71 748 62 748 57 743 57 734 57 730 59 726 62 723 114 683 156 617 187 526 214 447 228 369 228 292L228 208C228 131 214 53 187-26 156-117 114-183 62-223 59-227 57-231 57-234 57-243 62-248 71-248 72-248 75-247 78-245Z"></path></g></g></g></g></svg><svg data-labels="true" preserveAspectRatio="xMaxYMid" viewBox="1278 -750 1 1000"><g data-labels="true" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g data-mml-node="mtd" id="mjx-eqn:6"><g data-mml-node="mtext" data-latex="\text{(6)}"><path data-c="28" d="M318-248C327-248 332-243 332-234 332-231 330-227 327-223 275-183 233-117 202-26 175 53 161 131 161 208L161 292C161 369 175 447 202 526 233 617 275 683 327 723 330 726 332 730 332 734 332 743 327 748 318 748 317 748 314 747 311 745 251 699 201 631 160 540 121 453 101 371 101 292L101 208C101 129 121 47 160-40 201-131 251-199 311-245 314-247 317-248 318-248Z"></path><path data-c="36" d="M383 504C416 504 432 521 432 555 432 627 378 666 304 666 221 666 155 627 106 548 63 480 42 403 42 316 42 189 65 100 112 47 152 1 198-22 251-22 312-22 362 1 401 47 438 91 457 144 457 205 457 266 439 318 403 361 365 407 316 431 257 431 205 431 165 402 138 346L138 352C138 465 166 561 226 605 252 624 279 633 306 633 342 633 368 623 385 602 351 602 334 583 334 553 334 525 355 504 383 504M344 340C355 317 361 272 361 206 361 141 356 98 345 76 325 35 294 14 251 14 222 14 200 24 184 44 171 60 162 74 158 85 146 116 140 163 140 227 140 255 144 282 151 308 164 355 201 399 256 399 295 399 325 379 344 340Z" transform="translate(389,0)"></path><path data-c="29" d="M78-245C138-199 188-131 229-40 268 47 288 129 288 208L288 292C288 371 268 453 229 540 188 631 138 699 78 745 75 747 72 748 71 748 62 748 57 743 57 734 57 730 59 726 62 723 114 683 156 617 187 526 214 447 228 369 228 292L228 208C228 131 214 53 187-26 156-117 114-183 62-223 59-227 57-231 57-234 57-243 62-248 71-248 72-248 75-247 78-245Z" transform="translate(889,0)"></path></g></g></g></svg></g></g></g></g></svg></mjx-container></p><p>这样看来激进的治疗 B（体外冲击波碎石术 ESWL）效果更好.</p><p>如果有潜在变量（特别是混合变量）存在，牢记：整体数据未必可靠，要通过科学合理的分组来查看具体细致的数据。</p></div><div class="story post-story"><h2 id="启示"><a href="#启示" class="headerlink" title="启示"></a>启示</h2><ul><li>数据从来都不是完全客观的. 我们必须对这些数字持怀疑态度.</li><li>辛普森悖论的出现是因为人们忽略了研究的因果关系，一旦我们理解了数据生成的机制，我们就可以寻找影响结果的其他因素，而图表不会告诉你这些.</li><li>充分考察事件的潜在影响因素和维度，系数消除分组数据基数差异造成的影响.</li><li>要求我们具备科学辩证思维，客观看待关联现象。很多时候，我们选择相信直觉，因为我们的直觉往往很准。但是，在信息不全或者信息非对称的情况下，直觉常常是是值得怀疑的。</li></ul></div></div><div class="footer"><div class="copyright 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